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Expectations for a "World with Interest Rates" to Discipline Fiscal Policy
11/23/2025, 10:05
AI SUMMARY
●• Return of interest rates viewed as necessary discipline for fiscal policy
●• Excessive spending predicted to spike bond yields and suppress stocks
●• Market forces expected to correct poor political decision-making
Commentary regarding Japanese fiscal policy highlights a positive outlook on the return of interest rates. The argument posits that higher interest rates will naturally discipline fiscal decision-making by raising government bond yields based on supply and demand dynamics, rather than just theoretical default concerns.
The perspective suggests that if fiscal stimulus is excessive, domestic stock prices may stagnate, forcing currency hedging strategies. The return of interest rates is seen as a necessary mechanism to purge poor political decision-making and prevent long-term economic embarrassment comparable to the "Truss shock" in the UK.
This view underscores a belief that market mechanisms, specifically bond yields, will act as a check against populist spending policies, forcing a correction in governance.