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Market Sentiment Pricing in High Probability of December Fed Rate Cut
11/25/2025, 05:06
AI SUMMARY
●• Markets are assigning a 71% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in December
●• High expectations for easing persist despite mixed economic signals
●• The potential cut acts as a key variable for risk asset performance in Q4
Current market pricing indicates a strong consensus regarding the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions. Traders are currently assigning a probability of approximately 71% to a third interest rate cut occurring in December.
This expectation persists despite mixed economic signals, suggesting that the market anticipates the central bank will continue its easing cycle to support liquidity. For the crypto market, continued rate cuts are generally viewed as a favorable condition for risk assets.
Participants will be monitoring forthcoming economic data to see if these odds shift. The alignment between market expectations and Fed action remains a critical factor for asset valuations heading into the year-end.