Prominent figures and firms in the cryptocurrency space are increasingly arguing that the traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle, historically driven by halving events, is no longer the primary determinant of price action. MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor stated in a CNBC interview that this cycle is effectively dead. He posited that with daily trading volumes reaching between $50 billion and $100 billion, the supply reduction from halvings (removing approximately 225 BTC/day) is now mathematically negligible compared to daily turnover. Saylor argues that the market is now driven more by structural financial demand than supply shocks. Adding weight to this perspective, Grayscale has similarly predicted that the traditional four-year cycle is unlikely to hold moving forward. While the firm still anticipates new all-time highs in the coming year, they suggest that market dynamics are evolving beyond the simple halving-centric model. This viewpoint reflects a growing consensus that the introduction of ETFs and institutional capital has fundamentally altered the market structure, making historical patterns less predictive. [Update 1] Grayscale has released a report echoing Michael Saylor's sentiments, formally stating that the four-year cycle may no longer apply due to evolving market drivers.